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Progression 18:28
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The Result 23:57
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about

Busy managers analyze many situations and make hundreds of decisions every day. Why, for example, are sales up in one city but down in another? Would an investment in new equipment mean higher productivity or greater confusion? Is now a good time to look for a joint venture partner, or is it better to wait? Rarely, however, do we stop to think about how we think. Each decision is the outcome of a complex process that usually involves two different kinds of thinking: looking backward to understand the past and looking forward to predict the future.

Thinking backward is largely intuitive and suggestive; it tends to be diagnostic and requires judgment. It involves looking for patterns, making links between seemingly unconnected events, testing possible chains of causation to explain an event, and finding a metaphor or a theory to help in looking forward.

Thinking forward is different. Instead of intuition, it depends on a kind of mathematical formulation: the decision maker must assemble and weigh a number of variables and then make a prediction. Using a strategy or a rule, assessing the accuracy of each factor, and combining all the pieces of information, the decision maker arrives at a single, integrated forecast.

Although managers use both types of thinking all the time, they are often unaware of the differences. Moreover, this lack of awareness makes decision makers stumble into mental traps that yield bad decisions. By understanding thinking backward and forward, we can recognize these traps and improve our decisions.

credits

released April 28, 2021

"โ–ทโ–ท in โ—โ—" is written, composed, performed and produced by ๐‘จ๐’…๐’†๐’‘๐’•๐’–๐’” ๐‘ด๐’†๐’„๐’‰๐’‚๐’๐’Š๐’„๐’–๐’”. Recorded, mixed and edited at the No Name Music Shelter, the Netherlands

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๐‘จ๐’…๐’†๐’‘๐’•๐’–๐’” ๐‘ด๐’†๐’„๐’‰๐’‚๐’๐’Š๐’„๐’–๐’” Netherlands

๐‘ซ๐’–๐’•๐’„๐’‰ ๐’‘๐’“๐’๐’๐’Š๐’‡๐’Š๐’„ ๐’‚๐’๐’… ๐’Ž๐’–๐’๐’•๐’Š๐’…๐’Š๐’”๐’„๐’Š๐’‘๐’๐’Š๐’๐’‚๐’“๐’š ๐’Ž๐’–๐’”๐’Š๐’„๐’Š๐’‚๐’


๐‘ช๐‘ซ'๐’” ๐’˜๐’Š๐’•๐’‰ ๐’Ž๐’š ๐’Ž๐’–๐’”๐’Š๐’„, ๐’š๐’๐’– ๐’„๐’‚๐’ ๐’ƒ๐’–๐’š ๐’‰๐’†๐’“๐’†:

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